Uninterrupted crises, which the whole world is afraid of, are afraid to think about the possibility of a new global conflict. Not risky predicting the future using the methods of traditional analytics, Lenta.ru turned to the discussion with those people who are professionally engaged in the description of the future: writers of science fiction.
We propagated to the authors of the same number of vacancies one and the same set of food with a method of scoring a wide range of thoughts about any problem. Your comments were kindly sent Sergiy Lukyanenko, Kirilo Benediktov, as well as Yana Botsmanі Dmitro Gordevsky, what is practiced under a wild pseudonym Oleksandr Zorich. Mi maєmo їх y chronological order, in your blackness, in your stench, they were taken away.
Dmitro Gordevsky, Yana Botsman
About imovirnіst vіyni
Dmitro: I, like a science fiction writer, would like to know that aliens on the great black zorelots will become the harbinger of the war of light. Stink, zvichayno well, I’ll start to destroy the world’s capitals, and then NATO, Russia and China will unite and kill all the zagarbniks. After that, the technocratic utopia and teraformation of Mars will rise up. Ale next to know that the ability to develop such a development is not too high.
Yana: And the axis of other scenarios may be immovable high. How to talk about just a "great war", arguably a great regional conflict ("democracy against the DPRK", "democracy against Iran", war between the monarchies of Zatoka, India against Pakistan, crossroads NATO and Russia to Africa too), then the transfer rate is close to 100 tons. If you talk about light war, I would give 60 thousand. It’s not a fact that light war in line with the classic statements about her, that is to say, against the odds of a strategic nuclear attack.
Dmitro: Until then, I respect that the threat of the world war is firmly established in the Russian Federation, and in the PRC, and, perhaps, at the same time, it will be announced about the creation of the Russian-Chinese military-political union.
About the possible fate of Russia
Yana: In view of the great regional conflict, Russia can distance itself, especially the Korean ones. But if we are talking about a world war, then what is a world war without Russia?
Dmitro: Nayimovіrnіshe, like in 1941, Russia will defend itself against the attack of calls. Yake mayzhe will sing-songly be better for the stabbed middle.
Dmitro: Today, it is easy to reveal one side (aggressor) against the other side in the sight of an occupant, it is possible to bring the object of aggression formally slandered by the order. Well, for example, in some regions there are “international terrorists”, the order itself (or one of the orders - the one that is recognized as an aggressor as “legal”) can’t go back to them and call a “strong partner” to help. In principle, something like this looked like rich episodes of the intervention of the Entente countries against Russia in 1918-1922 - you can’t say that the technology is fundamentally new. Otherwise, if it is stagnant, it can be on a new level and vikoristan right up to the complete dismantling of this other great power.
Yana: I guess, the “democrats” just need to make such plans for Russia and China. Given this, the scale of combat actions can be even more serious, with varying hundreds of aircraft and thousands of tanks, nuclear weapons can be stagnant too thinly - but discursive design will be without the word “war” in fire. "Stabilization diy", "middle ground", "pacification" - such a soul.
Dmitro: But what better way than an absolutely classic total war is possible right from the assistant for the Academy of the General Staff of the 1980s. Why is it due to this, that the state apparatus and the military-mobilization machine today are in their ambushes themselves, like a hundred years ago. And in the real minds of the most cunning politicians, it is only possible to comprehend what to command "Machine, start up." And they gave everything like the atomic dystopias of the 1950s-1960s.
Dmitro: The United States' stagnation in the regional war of tactful nuclear weapons in the next ten years is even more important. I don’t know what kind of nuclear weapons they have there formally vvazhaetsya - tactful and strategic. It is easy to see the bombing by Israel at the Close or Middle Departure. A full-scale deployment of strategic nuclear weapons from the USA and the Russian Federation is only possible in the "classic" third world war, but still it is small-scale (no more than 25 hundred kilometers in the nearest 10 years, in my opinion).
Yana: As far as other types of ZMU are concerned, it’s clear that officially (in the name of the order) the stench can be more vikoristan in the mainstream of the nuclear strike. In the rest of the 15th century, the Americans ruled such hysterics that it is unlikely that a healthy mind would dare to stop and succumb to a great regional conflict.
Yana: It seems that it is possible to seriously plunge into the world only a classic third light war with large-scale stagnation of strategic nuclear weapons. In this way, the economic and political role of the United States and the traditionally separated regions of Eurasia will be significantly reduced, and Latin America, Arabs, and Indians will take away the historical chance.
Dmitro: If so, it is possible, take away the pre-Columbian light, in which case the Caliphate and the Indian trivaly hour will wake up in the new or may be the new isolation of both Americas. Then, obviously, the fourth world war is imminent, in which the majestic dreadnought armada will play a key role. Possibly - glass of steam. If the new conquistadors under the ensigns of the Prophet appear from Oran, and in Gibraltar they strike the oceanic monitors of the Latin Empire, on the fleet of the post-nuclear era, the checks are unbearable and hoary sight!
Dmitro: Before us is clearly that vpadok, if you can easily see diametrically proliferating judgment. More, speaking about the windows of the dreadnoughts of the Caliphate, I actually already recognized one glance: technical degradation.
Yana: And such a scenario, for which the third world itself will become an apotheosis and, so to speak, a global look at new technical possibilities. Tse become at that vpadku, as for the conduct of military action with decisive goals against Russia, China will adopt the option "Oh, not mi, not singularity." For which reason will the creation of an armada of different combat drones and it will be introduced into the main global missile defense system. Then the forms of the army of robots will be used against any serious regional opponent (for example, in Iran). Let's sweat at "Godin Ch" raptom raptom like Skynet "it's better myself" fights against Russia, especially for help robots.
Obviously, such a scenario goes beyond the decimal obriy, about which we were told Rozmov.
Sergiy Lukyanenko
About imovirnіst vіyni
I appreciate the immovability of the "great war" to do it high. Unfortunately, the world, in a better way, has already accumulated a lot of different plans, the implementation of which by the “great war” method can be adopted as the most logical.
In another way, the great powers of the world (including, but not including the USA, Russia, China, Germany, Britain, etc.) have lost the memory of the war, as it was a stimulating factor for our friend half of the twentieth century.
Thirdly, there appeared a few forces, like sovereign, and anti - chi quasi-state (we are the front - secular terrorism), like zatsіkavlenі in the global war as a way to reach their interests and the evil of the current order of the world. Seeing for everything, the “great war” will be the last of them protirich, as they will be victorious forces with the unresistance of the great powers, as if they will speed up the situation to their own melancholy.
About the possible fate of Russia
In this other form, unfortunately, we can take our fate. It’s a smut for us, that this form was as close as possible to the participation of the United States in the Other world - “on a foreign territory, with little blood, looking like a calm place for the flow of minds and capitals.”
About the look of possible warfare and new forms of combat action
I uttered the term "mosaic warfare" or "mosaic warfare". Tobto it is entirely possible, that the two-thirds of Europe or the two-thirds of the Close Descent - if so in the enclaves, that are left unaccompanied, will go to the whole peacefully and build a safe life. I repeat: our task is like a country - be one of such territories, so that you can become a viable military world, like Switzerland or the USA to another world.
About the possibility of blocking the mass damage and її legacy
Zastosuvannya ZMU is practically inevitable, if only on the level of "brudnoy bombs", self-contained rubbish speeches, the destruction of strategic infrastructure facilities (rowing, nuclear power plants, chemical backwaters). It’s a pity, until people collectively get sick of this (for all the falsity of such a vision), it won’t be possible to win the war. Moreover, її zupinyati, more for everything, there will be great powers for the help of that same ZMP or Kilim bombardment.
About the legacy of a possible war in a flash
It's not surprising, there will be no special legacy for civilization. Tsya war is unlikely to promote the Arab world of Pivdenno-Skhidna Asia in a flash. If the right does not reach the global war, then the leaders do not change, they are less likely to change jobs in the midst of the first ten. Ale, there will be a split in the war on the foot of the capital.
How could a new war be sent to the development of civilization, like Persha and the Friend of the world, what caused degradation?
Zrozumіlo, you will become a postmaster to the development, the science of art, science, technology, and philosophy. There is nothing good in it, but the people can’t grow up anyway, let’s go around the crisis of murder. Zvichayno, as on the right, did not reach the global nuclear war. There will be no special choice here: degradation, the fundamental evil of the existing civilizational model, the change of leaders. Vtіm, people vtsіlіє th at times. People are already attached to the essence.
Kirilo Benediktov
About imovirnіst vіyni
It's a pity, I regard the immovability of the "great war" to the next ten years as high. I realized that it’s unfair to give such forecasts of trouble - as if you won’t become a rapt war, you can always say with a light heart: “Well, I’ve had mercy, but how am I radium cioma.” But I am not sure that the situation can be described in such terms. Pardon here can be only in terms - in three years, five years, ten, fifteen and twenty great war all the same to get drunk.
In other words, through growing competition for the resource base, we are ahead for the Arctic, and in a different way, through growing pressure, what kind of intelligence Zahid knows (for example, Russia and China are included in this category) from the side of the Islamic world. Islamic terrorism was born not yesterday, but less than a hundred years ago, but at the same time, it already took shape and gained quasi-state forms. In my sense, the “great war” is already here - and not less in Syria and Iraq, and in the streets of European cities, in Russia and the USA.
Well, if you talk about the war of the world, then the ghosts, better for everything, will become traditional powers, and not quasi-state establishments. Mirkuvati about those, like the power itself, to be called on the same, like on me, is incorrect. At once on the planet, there is only one superpower, as you can take the risk of the cob of a new great war, and you can’t imagine that in the next ten years the situation will change. The problem is not in the one who is most guilty himself, but in the one who develops under the far-reaching plan, which will be under control, calling out the “domino effect”.
Z global Scenaria Nabіlsh is not easier є Mozhlivius confline MІZH USA Tos Kitaєm, Priemskiy Pozdokenі in Parasi: Romisitnesses on the territory of Pivynia Korea of American Systems about Thaad, Taead Congreated by Conflіkt Navko Ostrovіv Spratli (I don't care for the USA. near the Skhidno-Chinese Sea and the smut, like the piece islands created by China near the Pivdenno-Chinese Sea. These islands were created by the path of increasing the territory of the reefs and small islands - and to the one who marries the land to China, how to think. Next to the leather island is the territorial water (12 miles) and the 200-mile vinyl economic zone. Vіdpovіdno to the UN Convention on ship navigation - accepted in the її Chinese interpretation - in the 200-mile zone it is not possible to move fleets of foreign powers. Cunning China, having expanded the number of piece islands in such a manner as to allow the creation of the letters of the Convention to allow the US fleet to move freely between the Indian Pacific Ocean in a straight line, the stench will be mad to go through Australia.
The United States, like a talasocracy, that is a power, can be able to take us ahead of us in ocean fleets, it is unlikely to come in handy with similar fencing of its capabilities. Look, it's time to grow your legs at the concept of "Pacific streaming to China," taken up by Washington just in an hour, if Mrs. Clinton was the Secretary of State. It is unlikely that China considers the scenario of war against the United States as a bug, but for the new defenders of these islands - on the right, not less than economic prestige, but also geopolitical survival. And here in the Pivdenno-Chinese Sea there will be a large-scale strike of the US Navy and China, but it is not included, which will lead to the third light war.
One more scenario, about which it is impossible not to say, is a blow to Iranian nuclear facilities, either to the US Air Force or to Israel for the diplomatic support of Washington. This scenario was even more similar to another presidential term of the Young Bush, then later on it ceased to be relevant at the link with the “Iranian detente” under Obama, but now, unfortunately, I’m becoming a worker again through the very negative attitude of Donald Trump to Iran and that nuclear yoga . programs. However, Russia has every chance to win its own political influx to beat such a scenario.
About the possible fate of Russia
If it will be just a "great war" - let's say, a war on the Korean farm, let's get out of the nuclear war, then I strongly support that Russia should be allowed to settle down to the role of mediator-peacemaker. Zmіg same Volodymyr Putin vіdmovitsya in the face of the more stubborn propositions of George W. Bush to come to the coalition for another hour of war at Zatotsi (2003). As if the war is on a global scale, no one should be allowed to sit.
Prior to the victory in the elections, the United States Donald Trump risked blaming a new global conflict in the European theater of operations to end the great one - take the real one. Navmisno intensifies tension on the whole stretch of the Baltic-Chornomorskaya arc, de - at the hired supporter of Russia - already three rocks of rotting that bring puppet enlightenment "Ukraine". Powerful scenarios of trade in the enclave of Kaliningradsky in Russia were considered.
Prote ti graves, as if they were ready to play the Viysk card, recognized the strikes (possibly, Timchasov), and the current administration was not urged to destabilize the situation in the Western cordons of Russia. To that - take on the nearest chotiri rocks - Russia can calmly calm down. And the best thing is to win over the gifts of re-wires for the remote growth of your own economic potential, but sooner, I repeat, the global war will not perish.
About the look of possible warfare and new forms of combat action
The day of the war of the last century was similar to the war of the twentieth century. Whatever the future has, the lesser the primary will be the forms that take the war, wanting to be the essence, the goals of that task will become immutable: defeat the opponent, defeat your military potential, take control of your resource base, impose your will on the opponents. In the U.S. in the U.S. warto add an important motivation: saving the dominating camp in the world.
Local wars and nadals are being carried out by someone else’s hands, “harmonious meat”, as if it were coming from the Donbass of Syria. The vtruchannya of the great powers will be mostly point-like, moreover, in the form of a direct stop, the stench will be whittled down as much as possible. So far as the “great war”, then there will be a war of cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Rocks for ten new theaters of viyskoh diy can become an expanse of earth, and the method will be the grouping of satellites, as a way to ensure navigation, calls and the Internet. For example, Elon Musk filed an application to the US Federal Commission for the implementation of the project, which transfers 4.5 thousand spacecraft into space with a 386 kg carload. The exploitation of this grouping of satellites will allow the skin inhabitant of the Earth to use the Internet on a speed of up to 1 Gb / s, the introduction of such a grouping of satellites in a way is significant for its kind of “turning on electricity” in other regions of the planet.
The war in the Arctic, which is greater for everything, is carried out by the forces of small groups of soldiers of special recognition, for an hour without recognizable marks - it is on the kshtalt of the woeful "green people". Due to the peculiarities of the theater of operations, where the special forces group is enough for the raid to lower the localized base of the enemy, such groups can defeat the task force and roam in the “greater stillness”, without leaving behind and incapable of hanging the claims of the other side.
About the possibility of blocking the mass damage and її legacy
Theoretically, there are no transition codes for which there is no, but there is no such transition code for the use of "brudny bombs", which, as it turns out, can be picked up not in garages and accessible to terrorists, but like a similar terrorist attack in an hour with a nuclear foundation. programs, dyakuvati God, it didn’t happen. Zastosuvannya nuclear weapons can be in an extreme state, if the regime, which can take such a zbro, has the courage to speak out the "remaining argument of the queens", rozumіyuchi, sho spend more than nothing on you.
Possibly, on the building of Kim Jong-un, even if you can’t cope with the defeat of a gloomy maniac a la Hitler or Pol Pot, you can’t take it with you into hell as you can more people. In addition, Kim Chen Ying itself can do without nuclear weapons: yogo artillery, roztashovanoy vzdovzh demarcation line Pivnich-Pivden, enough to wipe Seoul from the earth with 25 million inhabitants. And in the USA, it’s better to think about it - it’s not unusually the same in the same day, the redeployment of the 8th US army stationed in Seoul in Pyeongthek is 70 kilometers per day from the capital.
The victory of the SNF in the large-scale military conflict with the great frequent imovirnosti signifies the end of civilization in sight, who knows. The very same SNAO can be looked at not as an enemy, but rather as a “great pacifier”. But other ZMPs, then, judging by the samples of their victories in Syria and Afghanistan, the stench is not equal to nuclear weapons, and it is irrational to rely on them for a global war. The best scenario, for which TNW to spend before the hands of such enemies of the western civilization, like IDIL. In this mood, they can develop an uncontrollable character.
About the legacy of a possible war in a flash
A great war is inevitably involved in the world economy, like, at the thought of rich experts, surviving without a way out and exhausted all the mortgages from its potential for development. Another world war in the Villa gave birth to the Bretton Woods system, the end of the cold war was marked by the Washington consensus. The third world mayzhe singsongly called before the reorganization of light trade and financial markets, but how to name it new system, No one can overdo it at once. Possibly, Beijing's favor.
Chi will become a new war post to the development of civilization, like Persha and the Friend of the world, what will degrade degradation?
It is worth laying waste in order to be victorious at the third light of the strategic nuclear forces, or to be carried out by significant (or non-severe, but non-nuclear) weapons. For the first one, new Dark Ages are being checked on us, for the other - a sharp breakthrough in the future, a breakthrough, perhaps, with the technological development of 1944-1969 years.
Verno, scho vyyni vzagali to give an exhaustive postal development of technologies. Sche Heraclitus in the VI century BC postulyuv: Vіyna - the father of all and the king of us; the war is taken as a curse, the witch is the law, and it is blamed through the witch.” The space flights of the SRSR and the USA, after which the SRSR were the first to launch people into space, and the Americans were the first to land on the Month, was an uninterrupted birth of a cold war and a kind of spectacle, a method of showing the world’s adversary space that it’s the fault of an undefeated strike.
Tsіkavo, on the cob of the 1980s, if Reagan launched the program "Dawn Wars" (SOI), Radian Union the Americans came well informed, as they tried to convey to the SRSR scientists the right programs: the development of new technologies, the concept of laser welding of metals in a vacuum. Yakschko Vіskinni Nisenіtsevyu, Shah, I once again had the program of the SIM, ї ї ї ї ї ї ї ї ї илільки. Unfortunately, for low reasons, it was not broken. Propaganda overcame healthy stupidity.
Russia, 27 September - News. If you respectfully follow the news, then, sing-song, you can’t help but remember that there are so many wars. What is the axis-axis, if you can get away and the war will definitely be.
All of us see our thoughts, miraculously sensible, that the Third Light of the World will not have a chance, but why did they say that there will be a war of Light itself? Why can’t everything be surrounded by NATO and Russia on the territory of Ukraine, for example?
Bo can't. The light bulk of the flooring is virue, that there is a majestic number of people who want to know Washington and those especially inveterate priests.
Let's take a demo from Skhodu to Zakhid. Those American bases at GUAM do not suit practically anyone in Asia, and especially China, obviously. Moreover, China is happy to spread Yokohama and other military bases of the United States in the Pacific region. At the same time, experts begin to say that the Chinese military and naval forces of the PRC were compared with the power of self-defense of Japan (how funny it sounds, right?! The country, as it formally does not have military forces and the fleet, was strong for the power in the sea of the first economy of the world).
Shvidshe for all spalahne Caucasus. Azerbaijan that Vіrmenіya. Turkey is more than willing to save neutrality and know the possibility of entering into the NATO treaty. Iran will soon be supplied with S-300 systems, which are already practically ready for nuclear weapons. As a result of this, Israel is not the leader of early strikes against Tehran. Close Skhid slept all over. Who will be there for whom, it will be easy to sort out. Already at once it is obvious that the country is low, as if at once there is nothing loyal to Washington, for a great war, it will be a good idea to switch to another bek. It is worth it to Egypt, to Oman, to Yemen, and to Jordan. Lebanon and Hezbollah came to war against Israel. Better for everything, Israel will be erased. That time needs to be especially thoughtful, like galvanizing a Viysk car.
Middle Asia (Central) does not lose the posture of respect. Better for everything, Uzbekistan is more likely to gain momentum and win over Kazakhstan/Tajikistan/Kyrgyzstan. Today in Uzbekistan, the largest military army. Sin is not quickened by her at the great threshing machine.
Europe, as soon as you become the center of the main battle, you can simply skip.
Africa sleeps with us kvitami. Africa has by no means been a heavenly place, and with the success of a sharp sigh of all subsidies and humanitarian aid from the United Nations, Africa is more likely to beat one of the other with a special lute. Everything is accompanied by new epidemics.
Latin America. Argentina is sure to take the Falkland Islands from Britain. By the way, at the same time, Britain's wife has a fleet before them, and Argentina wants to buy supersonic Su-24s from Russia.
Venezuela, as if going through a crisis at once, for the great war, it is hard to strangle the protest. More than anything, Colombia, a satellite of the United States, and another sponsor of the opposition in Venezuela, try to take revenge on Venezuela and knock down the order to put your own there. Nicaragua, and, perhaps, the country is still low for everything, against the aggression of Colombia against Venezuela.
Indeed, even with a great stretch, all these blocks can be subdivided into all evil (USA and satellites), the block of good (Russia and satellites) and different lands, as if they simply fought to fight, the stench comes to victory. Have time to overcome the bloc of good to know Washington half of the world. And not only Russia, as someone can get to know.
To that very thing, if you will be a war, you will be a light. Gentlemen of Europe, what else do you want? Mi - nі. Ale we can.
Yak showing one whale Leopold. Let's live together.
What will be the Third World War
How will humanity survive the hell out of global confrontation?
AT to the current worldє as a minimum of five foci of conflicts, as they can outgrow at the world's Third war of the world. About tse at Saturday, 21 leaf fall, pov_domiv American magazine National Interest.
Axis yak, at the thought of US military analysts, looking at the “black list”:
- Syrian conflict. The expansion of the “Islamic state” indicates the concern of the greater world powers, including France, Russia and the United States. Ale navit from the appearance of a coalition, as if uniting the lands, between the allies can win through the strife, look at the future of Syria. In their own hands, active fighting forces between friendly forces in Syria can seize Turkey, Iran Saudi Arabia and, perhaps, expand other parts of the earth's backwoods.
— The superbness between India and Pakistan, yakі, hoch i іsnuyu already rich rokіv, at any time they can become a guest. As Pakistan-sponsored radical groups commit great terrorist attacks on Indian territory, Delhi can be patient. And if Pakistan is aware of a serious hit, a tactical nuclear attack can be delivered to you in one way. Further, the United States may enter into a conflict, as in the rest of the hour, the Daedals are closer to India, and China, which is to say that it is possible for Pakistan to be attacked.
- The situation at the Shidno-Chinese Sea, where two fates of China and Japan will lead a dangerous group around the Senkaku archipelago. Offended by the country, claims are hanging on the islands, and the skin has ignited the fire on the outskirts. As a conflict between China and Japan spallahne, the United States, if it is signed with the Japanese by a treaty on mutual defense, it is important to succumb to it, and China is encouraged to act on the front, attacking American military objects in the region.
— The situation in the Pivdenno-Chinese Sea — through the unsafe confrontation between the Acquired States from the Chinese maritime and defeated infantry. The loss of self-control on one side can lead to the most serious consequences. The American-Chinese war itself would be a catastrophe, and before that, Japan and India could get involved.
- Development of the ground in Ukraine - but here everything is stale in the face of NATO's readiness to intervene in the situation. As Russia is implicated in the NATO intervention, you can get used to it by coming in to help the Alliance mobilize. And be it an attack or serious threat attack one of the countries of NATO, you can become a drive for the alliance to spread military action.
"Vilna Press" tried to explain: why is the National Interest thickening farby, how close is the world to the Third Light?
“The fires of conflicts in the world were the foundation of a protracted history of humankind, and invariably, the middle ground could lead to the beginning of world wars,” appoints a leading expert to the Center for Military and Political Studies of the MDIMV, Doctor of Political Sciences Mikhailo Oleksandrov. - Here the mustache lay due to the fact that the naskolki of the krai realistically assessed the spivvіdnoshennia forces. In other words, svіtovі vіyni zvіyni vіnikali, if like zі storіn pomilkovo respected, scho she's strongest, and I can win over.
Let's say the period Cold War there were a lot of fires of conflicts, but the possibility of overgrowing them in the world war was very low. The United States and the Soviet Socialist Republic realistically assessed the spivvіdshenie forces, competently approached the analysis of the international situation, and served as a guarantee that, be it a crisis, it’s not so safe, like the Caribbean crisis of 1962 in Cuba, not the overgrowth of the Third World. Aje at that time, there were other crises: wars in Korea and Vietnam, introduction radyansky viysk in Afghanistan, wars in Angola, Mozambique, Nicaragua. Ale stinks so i lost their local ones.
Today, the problem is not in the fact that we are basing the middle of conflicts, but rather the naskolki zahіdnі politiki really assess the spіvvіdshenie forces. In my opinion, it's not great to judge the situation.
"SP": - Why do you care so much?
— Western politicians have not yet seen the euphoria of self-voiced victory in the Cold War. They misunderstood the situation, connected with the Soviet Socialist Republic of communism and the transition to a market economy and a democratic society. The stench behaved like this, nibi Radyansky Union recognized the blows of the "hot" war, and now Russia, like a criminal offender, can follow the rules imposed by Sunset.
The stench and at the same time realize that Zahid is stronger and can dictate his will to everyone in the world. The very military-political prorakhunok provoking the situation, in the same flock we can outgrow any conflict in the Third World.
"SP": - How realistic are the five scenarios described in the National Interest?
— I do not think that the global war can outgrow the conflict between India and Pakistan. It is unlikely that anyone can get in, to bring the sides to the point of tactful nuclear defence. In my opinion, the Indo-Pakistani conflict is like the beginning of the Third World, madly, falling.
Ale, be it some of the scripts that were lost in different level emovirny. For example, the potential for an overgrowth in a serious war may be a Japanese-Chinese conflict, as well as a conflict with China, Philippine and Vietnam near the Spratly Islands.
For Ukraine, I don’t think that NATO will join at the foot of the Pivdenny Skhod tsієї krajina, like Russia, enter there the military. Well, obviously, it’s good for the elite to think rationally. If you want to take a mountain of unrealistic moods at Zahodі - having said, at once crushing the Russians - you can bring the truth to escalation. Scenario for Entry in such situations: first of all, we will drop off, then we will send the military instructors, and then we will reach the introduction of the NATO contingent.
Ale, I repeat, if the Ukrainian situation is clear at Sunset. And the axis of Syria may well be uncontrolled escalation of the conflict. For example, politicians in the United States today declare that in Syria it is necessary to introduce a no-poll zone and the American military without consultation with Russia. Ale, you need to be sensible: if the States unilaterally go in such a short way - we can drink and mi. And there, where we pass the line of demarcation of the zone of interests, it is possible to close between the Viysks of our two lands.
I think that at the same time, the Turkish rebels will take the fate of the Syrian conflict - even the fighters of IDIL should be trained competently, but it is not similar to the big rebel terrorists. If Turechchina is on the path of escalation, and increase its presence in Syria, Ankara may want to provoke a conflict in Nagir Karabakh, or slaughter the Tatars in Crimea. In this way, we are more likely to actively support the Kurds for everything — and the situation can have every chance of getting out of control. All the same, Turechchina is a member of NATO, and vimagatime, so that they took over the defense of the alliance.
Looking at such forecasts, it’s embarrassing that Russia has demonstrated a military force in Syria - it’s possible to work hard at the western strategists. Moscow showed that it could not only have a nuclear, but also a non-nuclear streaming potential and build a non-nuclear attack on not only Europe, but also the United States.
"SP": - What will be the light of the future?
- The National Interest writes about the real war against the great groups. Ale, war on the fronts, like a friend of the world, obviously, there will be no. In my opinion, it will be, for us, a counter-space operation, directed at strangling the main centers of control of the enemy. Better for everything, such a war will be directed at a dividing non-nuclear siege, in order to bring good communication, ties, to strangle the will of the enemy to support. Rozrahunok will be divided into those who, for such tactics, defeat the enemy with nuclear weapons are not risky.
From Russia, I know, such a number will not pass - and the axis from China is entirely possible. Beijing does not have an arsenal of strategic non-nuclear streaming, more, its strategic nuclear forces are weak. Navit іsnuyucha US missile defense system to neutralize salvos of Chinese missiles. Washington is aware that Beijing will not try to launch a nuclear strike, the remnants are afraid that the United States will be able to bring down on Chinese territory the entire month of its nuclear fist.
With a strategic non-nuclear attack, the Americans, having deployed forces around China, can easily defeat the Chinese Navy, effectively lock China in the continental theater, and then connect to the right forces of the militant rebels and terrorist groups, to transfer the campaign to a network-centric format. Fortunately, China has a lot of districts that are ready for good luck in standing - tse and Tibet, and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. I think that Hong Kong has a numerical "fifth column", as it is ready to take the fate of the rebels.
As a result, you will start to stab, the low-lying areas in the Middle Kingdom - and China, as the only tormenting power, will cease to exist.
In my opinion, at the same time, in the face of such a scenario, the United States only thinks of one thing - it is clear that Russia does not stand aside. The downfall of China sharply remembers the balance of power in the world, and along with the Russian Federation, it appears alone in the fortune teller's sharpened. It’s not to our advantage, and that’s why we get involved in the American-Chinese conflict - and in this case, it’s going to be an escalation to the level of a strategic nuclear one.
Pіdbivayuchi pіdbags, at the same time find two in a right unsafe way: China and Syria. I’m the head viysk balancer, which gives Sunset enough to want a panuvannya over the world, Russia is speaking ...
— Narazі majestic rozkid dumok moreover, scho in honor of the Third world war, — even the director of the Center for Strategic Conjuncture Ivan Konovalov. - There were few politicians and experts upevneniya, that the Third Light is already on its way. On the spot, on my mind, pointing out on the critical growth of the struggle between Russia and Sunset, and between China and the USA. Yakbi is not the current situation in Syria, on aphids, as the resistance froze, The third world looked like Daedalus was strong.
The peculiarity of this global war lies in the fact that it is mediated. Today, everything miraculously understands that the nuclear war is the reason for the apocalypse. Also, there are schemes going on, in the practice of more cold wars. These two blocs - NATO and the USA on the same side, and the Soviet Socialist Republic and the lands of the Warsaw Pact on the other side - did not stand alone on the battlefield, but indirectly supported the other one. In the 1990s, the situation changed: everyone rapped that the confrontation was over, and in front of us was checking the great light of light. Ale, as it turned out, it’s not so. Therefore, in the 21st century, the indirect military method of cultivating political nutrition has become again popular.
Syria is just a battlefield in this middle war, and the number of such points is less likely to multiply.
* "Islamic Power" (IDIL) decisions Supreme Court The Russian Federation on December 29, 2014 was recognized as a terrorist organization, and its activity on the territory of Russia was closed.